Disaggregate Travel Demand Models

Disaggregate models are policy-sensitive travel demand forecasting models that are consistent with travel choice theory using data at the level of individual travelers. Such models were found to advance the existing state-of-the-art in explaining present travel behavior. Disaggregate models can also be applied with greater ease than aggregate models to corridor and project planning within urban areas. This study has developed new disaggregate demand models for work-trip mode choice and for shopping choices as follows: Mode, destination, frequency, and time of day. Specific findings related to these models are presented. The report gives hypothetical examples to illustrate how disaggregate models can be used to forecast the effects of travel changes in the price of gasoline, of a reduction in off-peak transit fare, of an increase in driving time to the downtown, and of change to the transportation models available to individuals.