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Preliminary Program
(Last Revised 5/10/2006 and subject to change)
Sunday, May 21, 2006
10:00am to 6:00pmRegistration 1:30pm to 5:00pm Workshop 1 – Innovations in Practice In this workshop we will review a variety of innovations in travel demand forecasting that go beyond the activity-based approaches. The presentations demonstrate a concerted effort to move toward the most elementary decision making units and new modeling directions. One portion of this workshop is dedicated to an open discussion of next steps for the federal travel model improvement program. Moderator - Kostas Goulias, University of California, Santa Barbara Speakers
Workshop 2 – FTA Findings for Meaningful Forecasts In its continuing efforts to ensure the reliability of travel forecasts for project-level decision-making, FTA sponsors research on travel forecasting methods, reviews the properties of travel models, and applies quality-control checks to travel forecasts. Three findings of general interest have emerged from recent FTA efforts to fulfill these responsibilities. The first presentation summarizes findings from research on ways to predict reliably the differences in highway travel volumes and travel speeds resulting from alternative transportation investments. The results of this research work shed substantial light on the problems inherent to forecasting changes in highway speeds and some partial solutions to these problems. The second presentation summarizes observations on current practice in travel-model development and suggests that the calibration and validation of the models generally suffers from insufficient attention, particularly relative to the effort invested in the econometric estimation of model parameters and structures. The final presentation suggests that better attention to quality control and interpretation of forecasts should be a priority in efforts to improve the reliability and usefulness of travel forecasting procedures. Moderator – Brian Gardner, Federal Highway Administration Speakers
Reception (Cash bar) Welcoming - Mike Walton, University of Texas, Austin Monday, May 22, 2006
7:00am to 4:00pmRegistration 7:30am to 8:30am – Continental Breakfast 8:30am to 8:45am Welcome Moderator – Chandra Bhat, University of Texas, Austin 8:45am to 10:00am Plenary Session 1 – Overview of the Policy Issues This plenary session will focus on the emerging transportation-related policy issues of today and tomorrow, and an overview of how these policy issues may affect travel modeling paradigms and the profession in general. Three distinguished leaders, one each from the federal government, state/local government, and academia, will share their perspectives on policy issues and implications. This plenary session will set the stage for the rest of the innovative modeling conference. Moderator- Chandra Bhat, University of Texas, Austin Speakers
Plenary Session 2 – Moving Innovative Models into Practice This session sets the stage for the rest of the conference by asking a panel of experts (1) why should travel modeling practice move from current trip-based travel forecasting models to more innovative models; (2) what additional research is needed to make innovative models useful for transportation planning; and (3) how can we bridge the gap between current travel model practice and innovative model research? Moderator – Bruce Spear, Federal Highway Administration Speakers
Breakout session 1A – Tour Based Models This session will begin with an overview of the tour based models developed in the United States. Then MPO and consultant staff will discuss tour based model development, data, staff, and financial requirements, lessons learned, and model implementation examples. Moderator – Karen Faussett, Michigan Department of Transportation Speakers
Data is very important to the development of our travel models. Getting the best data possible sometimes takes on innovative approaches. This session begins with an overview on processing travel survey data, then moves to synthesizing population, and finally to microsimulation of residential land use. The session will conclude with time for questions and discussion for the presenters. Moderator – Bill Upton, Oregon Department of Transportation Speakers
A number of innovative land use-transport models have been developed and implemented in recent years. This session will couple the important lessons learned from recent research and development work with emerging implementations of these models. The speakers will focus on the practical steps necessary to implement and apply integrated land use-transport models, with particular emphasis on recent experiences in North America. The session will include time for discussion and extended questions for the presenters at the end. Moderator - Eric Miller, University of Toronto, Canada Speakers
Breakout session 2A – Activity Based Models Several US metropolitan planning organizations are experimenting with tour-based and synthetic schedule generating activity models. Contemporary policy analysis requires methods that use new and better data collection methods, data analysis techniques, and simulation applications at the level of micro-units. This session will expand our horizons and offer a sample of these newer and more advanced types of analyses. Moderator – Kostas Goulias, University of California, Santa Barbara Speakers
The major goals of this session are to bring together modelers, practitioners, and survey researchers concerned with travel survey methodology and practice to present, discuss, and debate research papers that: (1) Address new data needs relative to innovative models; (2) Contribute to the science of measuring and/or reducing errors attributable to weaknesses in traditional travel survey design; and (3) Stimulate new ideas for further research and development in travel survey research methods. Moderator – Johanna Zmud, NuStats Partners, LP Speakers
Tuesday, May 23, 2006
7:00am to 12pmRegistration 7:30am to 8:30am – Continental Breakfast 8:30am to 10:00am Breakout session 3A – Education and Outreachbr /> This session will explore two issues critical to the success of efforts to improve the practice of travel demand modeling: the education of modelers, and outreach to the public. How can we ensure that modelers receive the on-going training they need to understand, evaluate, and implement new innovations in modeling? How can we avoid exacerbating the “black box” problem and instead use new innovations to join modeling with public involvement in the planning process? Moderator – Susan Handy, University of California, Davis Speakers
This session will focus on the critical policy issues that current models do not adequately address. Participants will identify and discuss the critical policy issues as well as the model improvements needed to respond to these important questions. Examples of the critical policy issues include:
Validation is a critical component of any successful model development effort. Activity-based models should be held to validation standards at least as high as those for conventional travel models, including ability to match observed conditions, sensitivity analysis, validation of all model components, and validation of forecasts as well as existing conditions. Activity-based models need not do a better job than conventional models at replicating existing conditions, nor should they do significantly worse. But their superior analytical capabilities should be able to be shown through sensitivity tests. In this sense, comparisons between activity-based and conventional models would be extremely valuable. Moderator – Tom Rossi, Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Speakers
Breakout session 4A – The Secret is in the Segue…Transitioning to a New Model Framework Once the decision has been made to move into Tour/Activity Based Modeling, the transition can be challenging. Issues related to staffing and hardware constraints, policy decision needs, software development, model implementation and training can all become overwhelming to the project leaders at the MPO. In this session, representatives from MPOs at various stages of this transition will present some of their experiences with this important segue. Moderator – Julie Dunbar, Dunbar Transportation Consulting Speakers - Panel of people who have considered a transition
The only thing certain about travel behavior is that it is constantly changing. How is travel behavior evolving and what are the demographic, socio-economic, and technological trends that will shape the future of travel? This session aims to provide a peek into the future of travel behavior and the data that will be needed to address emerging trends and model travel demand in the future. The session includes short invited presentations on demographic and travel trends in the United States and Europe and a paper presentation describing an innovative technology for recording activity and travel behavior. Most of the session will be conducted in an interactive discussion format to provide attendees the opportunity to debate and identify the key behavioral trends and data needs that will define the travel modeling arena of tomorrow. Moderators
Lunch and Plenary Session – Next Steps: Institutional Issues A round table discussion by MPO model practitioners, who will comment on "so what will it take" for their agencies to move to more advanced land use and travel modeling procedures. Time will be allowed for an interactive audience discussion with the round table participants, as well as for audience discussions on what was learned from this Conference and the "next steps" for moving forward. Moderator – Ken Cervenka, North Central Texas Council of Governments Speakers
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